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Listed under:  Probability

### How to win at rock-paper-scissors

Find out how to win at rock-paper-scissors using game theory. According to this theory, how should you decide on your next move when you play multiple rounds? See if you can apply this theory in multiple rounds of rock-paper-scissors with someone. Did you win? |Why would this theory be useful in economics?

### Micro:bit missions: Take a chance on me (Integrating Mathematics): years 6-8

This resource comprises two activities that allow students to explore the concept of chance in Mathematics. Students use computational thinking while using a micro:bit as a digital system to generate and collect data. Students implement programs involving branching and iteration in visual and general-purpose programming languages.

### Conduct chance experiments: Year 8 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 8 is for the topic of Conduct chance experiments. Students draw on what they have learnt about probabilities related to compound events and apply this knowledge in a variety of experiments. The use of digital tools and simulations allow for repeated practice of compound events and help to ...

### Come in spinner

Students recognise and describe variations in results and conduct a simple experiment with spinners.

### Introduction to games of chance

This lesson explores how to predict outcomes of games of chance. Students investigate the concepts of luck, skill and fairness, using dice games. They calculate probabilities for one and two dice rolls and compare the odds for different combinations of dice in a variety of game scenarios. The lesson is outlined in detail ...

### Poker machines (simulation)

This lesson explores how poker machines work and what is meant by the term Return to Player (RTP) percentage. Students run simulations to determine how small betting amounts can lead to a large cumulative loss over time and examine how reinvesting profits or wins from playing the poker machine back into the machine has ...

### Prediction vs. reality

This lesson explores how we perceive randomness. Students toss coins and record their observations while half of the class fake their results. They will then explore the differences between the random results and fake results sets and investigate theoretical probabilities for large numbers of coin flips. The lesson is outlined ...

### The wide wide world of sports betting

This lesson explores the difference between perfectly predictable events (like the roll of a die) and less certain events (such as sports). Students investigate mathematically how sports bookmakers create odds to guarantee themselves a profit and pay gamblers less for a win than they deserve. The lesson is outlined in ...

### Sports betting

In this lesson students will take ownership of a gambling organisation. They will look at long term statistics of various sporting matches to set the initial odds and then monitor live betting to adjust the odds they are offering gamblers, in order to demonstrate how sports betting organisations guarantee they always make ...

### Egg roulette: Part 2

In Part 1, students were introduced to probability without replacement, by exploring the game of egg roulette. Contestants take it in turns to choose an egg and smash it on their head hoping to avoid the 3 raw eggs! In this lesson, students consolidate and make deeper connections using simulation to address misconceptions ...

### Possible outcomes: Year 6 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 6 is for the topic of Possible outcomes. Students represent the probability of an event occurring on a scale of zero to one as decimals, fractions or percentages.

### Probability calculations: Year 8 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 8 is for the topic of Probability calculations. Students are introduced to more complex probability concepts, terminology and visual representations for all combinations of two events. Students learn the language and differences between the connectors: ‘and’, ‘or’(inclusive or exclusive), ...

### One word changes it all

Exploring the meaning of 'and' and 'or' in probability.

### Back to the books

In this lesson, students will explore how bookmakers set odds, and how these odds are carefully determined in order to guarantee the bookmaker the best chance of making a profit. Students learn how to convert between odds and probabilities and calculate the expected profit or loss based on odds. The lesson is outlined in ...

### Lucky lottery

In this lesson, students play a simple lottery game, analyse their odds of winning and how this influences the decisions they made. Students determine the differences between experimental and mathematical probability, conduct a simulation modelling an event and critically evaluate the odds of winning the lottery. The lesson ...

### Can you beat the system?

In this lesson, students calculate the average expected value of losses on a roulette wheel over time, and use these values to analyse the cost of gambling on these games. They also study the flaws inherent in betting systems to determine whether these systems are weighted in the favour of game operators making a profit. ...

### TIMES Module 11: Statistics and Probability: chance, year 6 - teacher guide

This is a 17-page guide for teachers. It continues the development of probability. A careful consideration of outcomes and equally likely outcomes is undertaken. Experiments involving known probabilities are considered and what is observed is compared with what is expected. This is carried out with both small and large ...

### Thumb wrestling tournament

In this introductory activity students use a simple thumb-wrestling tournament to analyse a series of matches in which there can only be one victor. Students work in small groups to explore different ways of mapping out the events of a tournament, introducing the concept of constructing sample spaces and tree diagrams as ...

### Inference for proportions

This is a teacher resource for inference of proportions consisting of a website and a PDF with identical content. It contains discussion of how probability is used in statistical inference, the sample proportion as an estimator, the sample proportion as a random variable, population parameters and sample estimates, and ...

### Always, sometimes, never

This is a web resource that includes four student activities focusing on chance and the language associated with chance events, accompanied by activity sheets and a detailed teacher guide for each activity. The activities cover words associated with chance and likelihood, fairness, luck and superstitions, and ordering chance ...