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Listed under:  Mathematics  >  Statistics and probability  >  Probability  >  Expected frequency
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Possible outcomes: Year 7 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 7 is for the topic of Possible outcomes. Students represent the probability of an event occurring on a scale of zero to one as decimals, fractions or percentages.

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Assessment task: Chuck-a-Luck

This assessment includes a number of questions to enable students to demonstrate their understanding and learning in probability. Students will be asked to investigate an old gambling game known as Chuck-a-Luck. They will calculate the probabilities of each betting option and their expected values. The assessment task is ...

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Counter-intuitive probability

This lesson is designed to demonstrate the ways in which random chance can be counter-intuitive. Students will explore how assumptions made in probability can be risky and investigate how to perform precise calculations to answer probability questions. The lesson is outlined in detail including NSW curriculum links, learning ...

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Assessment task: Non-transitive dice

This assessment includes a number of questions to enable students to demonstrate their understanding and learning in probability. Students will be asked to explore the outcomes of a set of non-transitive dice using probability tree diagrams, and discover their unique features. The assessment task is outlined in detail including ...

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Loot boxes

In this lesson, students will create their own video game concept, complete with a loot box system. They will then calculate the probability of obtaining all unique items to form a complete set, considering the challenges this random system entails and how the gambling system inherent could lead to unexpected losses. The ...

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Lucky lottery

In this lesson, students play a simple lottery game, analyse their odds of winning and how this influences the decisions they made. Students determine the differences between experimental and mathematical probability, conduct a simulation modelling an event and critically evaluate the odds of winning the lottery. The lesson ...

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Prediction vs. reality

This lesson explores how we perceive randomness. Students toss coins and record their observations while half of the class fake their results. They will then explore the differences between the random results and fake results sets and investigate theoretical probabilities for large numbers of coin flips. The lesson is outlined ...

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Conduct chance experiments: Year 7 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 7 is for the topic of Conduct chance experiments. Students predict the frequency of an outcome of repeated chance experiments. They conduct simulations using digital tools to generate and record the outcomes, and observe the effect of many trials on the outcome. They then compare observed ...

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What are the odds?

Students calculate the probability for single-step events using sample spaces.

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Introduction to games of chance

This lesson explores how to predict outcomes of games of chance. Students investigate the concepts of luck, skill and fairness, using dice games. They calculate probabilities for one and two dice rolls and compare the odds for different combinations of dice in a variety of game scenarios. The lesson is outlined in detail ...

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Back to the books

In this lesson, students will explore how bookmakers set odds, and how these odds are carefully determined in order to guarantee the bookmaker the best chance of making a profit. Students learn how to convert between odds and probabilities and calculate the expected profit or loss based on odds. The lesson is outlined in ...

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Can you beat the system?

In this lesson, students calculate the average expected value of losses on a roulette wheel over time, and use these values to analyse the cost of gambling on these games. They also study the flaws inherent in betting systems to determine whether these systems are weighted in the favour of game operators making a profit. ...

Video

Catalyst: Probability and the gambler's fallacy

Mathematician Lily Serna visits Luna Park to explain a great probability pitfall. She shares a century-old tale from Monte Carlo casino, and then she puts its lesson to the test. If you flip a coin and it lands on heads three times in a row, what result would you predict for the next flip? Find out why intuition might land ...

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Thumb wrestling tournament

In this introductory activity students use a simple thumb-wrestling tournament to analyse a series of matches in which there can only be one victor. Students work in small groups to explore different ways of mapping out the events of a tournament, introducing the concept of constructing sample spaces and tree diagrams as ...

Interactive

The foul food maker: go figure

This tutorial is suitable for use with a screen reader. It explains how the use of simple words can describe the likelihood of everyday events. How likely is an event: certain, likely, equal chance, unlikely or certainly not? Answer some questions using these words and then build your own examples. Learn how to describe ...

Interactive

Syllabus bites: Venn diagrams and Two-way tables

An interactive exploration of the relationship between Venn diagrams and Two-way tables.

Video

Comparing chance

A simple interactive simulation in which students compare probabilities.

Video

What Are the Chances?

Do you know what chance is? It's the probability or the likelihood of something happening. Watch this video as Grace explains the probability of picking a red marble out of a bowl. What's the probability of picking a green marble?

Video

Catalyst: Probability and the birthday paradox

Even when a maths problem seems simple – for example, the chance of two people sharing a birthday – the maths can run counter to our human intuition. Mathematician Lily Serna poses a maths problem to the Clovelly Bowling Club: how many people do you need to gather to get a 50 per cent chance of any two people in that group ...

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Probability

This is a website designed for both teachers and students that addresses probability from the Australian Curriculum for year 7 students. It contains material on the language of probability, experiments and counting, and the probability of an event, and explains the mathematical use of the terms 'random' and 'randomly'. ...