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Mathematics / Year 4 / Probability

Curriculum content descriptions

conduct repeated chance experiments to observe relationships between outcomes; identify and describe the variation in results (AC9M4P02)

Elaborations
  • playing games such as Noughts and Crosses or First to \(20\) and deciding if it makes a difference who goes first and whether you can use a particular strategy to increase your chances of winning
  • recording and ordering the outcomes of experiments using different physical or virtual random generators such as coins, dice and a variety of spinners
  • experimenting with tossing \(2\) coins at the same time, recording and commenting on the chance of outcomes after a number of tosses
  • shuffling a set of cards, drawing a card at random, and recording whether it was a spade, club, diamond or heart, picture card or numbered; repeating the experiment a number of times and discussing the results
General capabilities
  • Critical and creative thinking Critical and Creative Thinking
  • Numeracy Numeracy
ScOT terms

Conditional probability,  Independence (Experiments),  Probability,  Observations (Data)

Video

Catalyst: Probability and the gambler's fallacy

Mathematician Lily Serna visits Luna Park to explain a great probability pitfall. She shares a century-old tale from Monte Carlo casino, and then she puts its lesson to the test. If you flip a coin and it lands on heads three times in a row, what result would you predict for the next flip? Find out why intuition might land ...

Online

Conduct chance experiments: Year 4 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 4 is for the topic of Conduct chance experiments. Students conduct repeated chance experiments. Students carry out an experiment multiple times, record the results, and identify and describe any variation in these results.

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Primary mathematics: games, simulations and modelling

These seven learning activities, which focus on 'games, simulations and modelling' using a variety of tools (software) and devices (hardware), illustrate the ways in which content, pedagogy and technology can be successfully and effectively integrated in order to promote learning. In the activities, teachers use games, ...

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Always, sometimes, never

This is a web resource that includes four student activities focusing on chance and the language associated with chance events, accompanied by activity sheets and a detailed teacher guide for each activity. The activities cover words associated with chance and likelihood, fairness, luck and superstitions, and ordering chance ...

Interactive

The foul food maker: go figure

This tutorial is suitable for use with a screen reader. It explains how the use of simple words can describe the likelihood of everyday events. How likely is an event: certain, likely, equal chance, unlikely or certainly not? Answer some questions using these words and then build your own examples. Learn how to describe ...

Interactive

The vile vendor: go figure

This tutorial is suitable for use with a screen reader. It explains how the use of simple words can describe the likelihood of everyday events. How likely is an event: certain, likely, equal chance, unlikely or certainly not? Answer some sample questions using these words and then build your own examples. This learning ...

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reSolve: Sport Stats

In this lesson, students examine sporting scores and explore the concept of the average of a set of scores. Students collect sporting scores from real and hypothetical games, use blocks to visualise an even distribution of scores across matches and then explore how to calculate the average of a set of scores. The lesson ...

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Numbers Count: Chance and playing with dice

Have you ever played a game that required you to roll a dice? Did you know that you have equal chances of rolling any of the six numbers? Can you think of another experiment where you have an equal chance of getting one result or the other?

Video

What Are the Chances?

Do you know what chance is? It's the probability or the likelihood of something happening. Watch this video as Grace explains the probability of picking a red marble out of a bowl. What's the probability of picking a green marble?

Text

Balance

This activity invites students to explore the phenomena of balance and investigate the question, 'Can you find at least three different ways of balancing three identical weights on a balance board?' Students work with a simple balance (e.g., a ruler as the balance board, a toilet-paper-tube fulcrum, and coins as weights), ...

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TIMES Module 2: Statistics and Probability: data investigation and interpretation, year 4 - teacher guide

This is a 13-page guide for teachers. It continues the development of probability. An informal consideration of outcomes is undertaken.

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Waste and materials – sustainability action process (Years 3–6)

This resource guides students through an extended school-based or local investigation focussed on waste and materials using the five-step sustainability action process. The resource supports the investigation of a real-world issue or problem. Students develop and implement a chosen sustainability action and then evaluate ...

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Comparing chance

A simple interactive simulation in which students compare probabilities.

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MoneySmart: The house of needs and wants

This is a unit of work integrating aspects of the mathematics, English and science curriculums around planning a school breakfast. The unit was written for year 3 and is intended to take about 12 hours. It consists of 11 student activities supported by teacher notes on curriculum, pedagogy and assessment. Student activities ...

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Kitchen gardens – sustainability action process (Years 3–6)

This resource guides students through an extended school-based or local investigation focussed on kitchen gardens using the five-step sustainability action process. The resource supports the investigation of a real-world issue or problem. Students develop and implement a chosen sustainability action and then evaluate and ...

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How does your garden grow?

This Stage 2 resource grew from a conversation between young students questioning why they could still buy grapes if they were out of season. This wondering led to a discussion around when we grow certain fruit and vegetables. The original stimulus was extended to cover planting for the seasons and factors that influence ...

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Possible outcomes: Year 4 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 4 is for the topic of Possible outcomes. Students build on their language of chance and ability to order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring. They begin working with independent and dependent events – independent events occur when one event does not affect the other, ...