Mathematics / Year 10 / Probability

Curriculum content descriptions

use the language of “if .... then”, “given”, “of”, “knowing that” to describe and interpret situations involving conditional probability (AC9M10P01)

Elaborations
  • using two-way tables and Venn diagrams to understand conditional statements using the language of “if ... then ...”, “given”, “of”, “knowing that” and identifying common mistakes in interpreting such language
  • using arrays and tree diagrams to represent, interpret and compare probabilities of dependent and independent events
General capabilities
  • Critical and creative thinking Critical and Creative Thinking
  • Numeracy Numeracy
ScOT terms

Conditional probability

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reSolve: Probability - Forensic Investigations

This lesson investigates real-world applications of probability. Students examine real-world case studies of probability being applied in misleading ways. They assess and explain the flaws in the mathematical methodology used. There is also an emphasis on accurate and inaccurate ways of communicating mathematical concepts ...

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Determining the probability of a good day for sowing cotton

This activity is a series of three related tasks that support the use of spreadsheets (Excel), Venn diagrams and two-way tables to develop an understanding of conditional probability when used to determine the probability of a farmer being able to sow a cotton crop. The activity is, based on real historical soil and air ...

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Multi-bets

In this lesson, students will calculate both the payout and the odds for various multi-bets, demonstrating how even this increased payout does not match the probability of achieving such a bet, and therefore the risk and appeal of the bet should be weighed up. The lesson is outlined in detail including NSW curriculum links, ...

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How does gambling on the races work?

This lesson simulates the operation of a bookmaker to illustrate to students how easy it is to get swept up in the excitement of a race, and to show how the bookmakers are always coming out having made a profit. The lesson is outlined in detail including NSW curriculum links, learning intentions, discussion points, materials ...

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Should you swap?

This lesson explores the classic probability problem, commonly known as the Monty Hall problem: having chosen what you think is the winning door with the money behind it, should you swap to another door when Monty offers you the opportunity? Students will first use probability language to define the problem. Students will ...

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Counter-intuitive probability

This lesson is designed to demonstrate the ways in which random chance can be counter-intuitive. Students will explore how assumptions made in probability can be risky and investigate how to perform precise calculations to answer probability questions. The lesson is outlined in detail including NSW curriculum links, learning ...

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Assessment task: Non-transitive dice

This assessment includes a number of questions to enable students to demonstrate their understanding and learning in probability. Students will be asked to explore the outcomes of a set of non-transitive dice using probability tree diagrams, and discover their unique features. The assessment task is outlined in detail including ...

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Sports betting

In this lesson students will take ownership of a gambling organisation. They will look at long term statistics of various sporting matches to set the initial odds and then monitor live betting to adjust the odds they are offering gamblers, in order to demonstrate how sports betting organisations guarantee they always make ...

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Two-up - The fairest game of all?

In this lesson, students look at the history and mathematics of Two-Up, exploring why it is considered such a fair game, and how the ‘boxer’ or game runner makes a profit. The lesson is outlined in detail including NSW curriculum links, learning intentions, discussion points, materials required, links to supporting videos ...

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Poker machines

In this lesson, students design a poker machine payout system which both guarantees a return of 85% of money invested, while also being fun and engaging for the player. Students then simulate these machines to test the ‘actual’ or real world payout of such machines, taking note of their feelings when playing. Ultimately, ...

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Easter Show games of chance

In this lesson, students will calculate the probability of an average person scoring a shot at a basketball game at the Easter Show. They will then use these probabilities to design a payout system which can absorb the losses from an average player winning big, whilst profiting from the average player who scores very poorly, ...

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Lotto mania

In this lesson, students will simulate a lottery, and perform calculations to determine the small probability of their exact numbers being drawn from a lottery. They will also consider the financial investment that would be required to guarantee a lottery win, ultimately determining that such a strategy would end up costing ...

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Probability calculations: Year 10 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 10 is for the topic of Probability calculations. Students design and conduct chance experiments relating to conditional probability using digital simulation tools to conduct multiple trials. Students are expected to interpret problems and describe their interpretations.

Video

Big data, better hospitals

Overcrowding in hospitals is one of the biggest challenges facing our healthcare system . In order to reduce hospital waiting times, the Patient Admission Prediction Tool (PAPT) uses historical data to predict how many patients, and with what kinds of injuries, are expected to arrive at the emergency department each day ...

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TIMES Module 15: Statistics and Probability: chance, year 10 - teacher guide

This is a 15-page guide for teachers. This module continues the development of probability. In year 10, students consider situations involving two or three stages or two or three variables. In the special case of two- or three-step chance experiments, they assign probabilities to outcomes in situations involving selections ...

Video

How to win at rock-paper-scissors

Find out how to win at rock-paper-scissors using game theory. According to this theory, how should you decide on your next move when you play multiple rounds? See if you can apply this theory in multiple rounds of rock-paper-scissors with someone. Did you win? |Why would this theory be useful in economics?

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Conduct chance experiments: Year 10 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 10 is for the topic of Conduct chance experiments. Students design and conduct chance experiments relating to conditional probability using digital simulation tools to conduct multiple trials. Students are expected to interpret problems and describe their interpretations.

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Lucky lottery

In this lesson, students play a simple lottery game, analyse their odds of winning and how this influences the decisions they made. Students determine the differences between experimental and mathematical probability, conduct a simulation modelling an event and critically evaluate the odds of winning the lottery. The lesson ...