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Mathematics / Year 4 / Probability
Curriculum content descriptions
describe possible everyday events and the possible outcomes of chance experiments and order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring; identify independent or dependent events (AC9M4P01)
Elaborations
- using lists of events familiar to students and ordering them from “least likely” to “most likely” to occur; considering and discussing why the order of some events might be different for different students
- predicting the outcome of a coin toss after \(5\) heads have been flipped in a row, discussing the assertion that because so many heads came up, it is more likely that a tail rather than a head will come up next; discussing with reasons why the assumption is correct or incorrect
- predicting how likely, from least likely to most likely, of selecting a red ball from a bag containing \(10\) red balls and \(5\) white balls, a bag containing \(20\) of each, or one that has \(25\) red balls and \(20\) white balls, justifying their decision
- identifying school activities where the chance of them taking place is affected by the chance of other events occurring; for example, given that there is a high chance of a storm on Friday, there is only a small chance that the coastal dune planting project will go ahead
- listing the outcomes of everyday chance situations and identifying where one cannot happen if the other happens; for example, discussing that it cannot be hot and cold at the same time; selecting a card from a deck and discussing if it is red it cannot be a spade or a club
- identifying different dependent events where the chance of one outcome occurring will be affected by the occurrence of other outcomes and different independent events where the chance of one outcome occurring will not be affected by the occurrence of other outcome(s)
- exploring how ordering outcomes based on their likelihood of occurring is an essential component of early warning systems that use artificial intelligence to make decisions, such as natural disaster warning systems
- discussing how likelihood relates to the decisions an artificial intelligence tool makes when generating predictive text; for example, discussing which word would most likely come next in a sentence, then refining the decision as the first letter is revealed
General capabilities
ScOT terms
Likelihood